Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5348…8601 crypto 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+2%) realized +$54 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%177W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$28
14 days−$11
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$67
sports 6% +$73
other 5% −$25
weather 1% −$5
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 45% -5.4%
≤30d 351 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 47% -10.6%
≤90d 351 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 47% -10.6%
all 351 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 47% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 47% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 43% -19.1%
15% -31.5% 39% -26.9%
20% -38.2% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses177 / 174
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)351 / 357
History coverage28d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 351 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 55¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Chicago White Sox 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Baltimore Orioles 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 49¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 147 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$40 +260%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +158%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -95%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 +$35 +336%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $31 −$20 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $10 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $10 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 43¢ $10 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 64¢ $10 20h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 20h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 21h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $10 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 8¢ $5 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 7¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.67 · official $49.67 (match) · 694 history records