Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x534b…9141 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%27W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day107.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
other 0% −$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 77% -2.5%
≤30d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 77% -2.5%
≤90d 35 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 77% -2.5%
all 35 -5.3% -14.3% 77% 77% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 77% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 31% -11.8%
15% -30.0% 6% -20.3%
20% -36.9% 0% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$43 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses27 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day107.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$20 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$46 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $53 +$13 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $72 −$53 -73%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $74 +$21 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $72 −$59 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$19 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $72 −$55 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $74 +$20 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $52 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $52 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.16 · official $2.16 (match) · 141 history records