Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x534d…f4e4 crypto 1568 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$658 (-1%) realized −$658 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%1495W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day34.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$38
14 days+$20
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -0.6% -10.1% 93% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 591 +1.2% -8.5% 94% 1% -9.8%
≤90d 1568 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 1% -9.7%
all 1568 +0.7% -8.9% 95% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 1% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$24 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$658
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1495 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1568 / 1568
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$73
Trades / day34.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1568 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $43 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $100 −$52 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $55 −$50 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $23 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $43 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $36 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $50 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.91 · official $50.05 · 3500 history records