Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5352…32a8 politics 262 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$186 (-3%) realized −$186 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%65W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$182
14 days−$182
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$19
other 38% −$181
sports 10% +$1
crypto 7% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -1.0% -10.5% 5% 0% -20.1%
≤30d 88 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -14.9%
≤90d 156 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -13.8%
all 262 -1.1% -10.6% 25% 0% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 0% -12.8%
10% -19.1% 0% -21.1%
15% -26.9% 0% -28.7%
20% -34.1% 0% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$186
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses65 / 197
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)262 / 262
History coverage137d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 262 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $934 −$181 -19%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $17 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2PM ET Jun 05 $6 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $9 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $17 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $52 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 28 $28 −$1 -3%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $42 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $47 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? May 28 $29 $0 -1%
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? May 28 $58 −$1 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $17 $0 -2%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $32 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 27 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $6 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $7 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 20h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 21h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 22h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 24h
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 24h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $9 30h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 30h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $5 31h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 31h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 32h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 32h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 33h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 33h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 34h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 34h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $10 35h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $10 36h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 38h
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 34¢ $670 2d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group SELL Yes 42¢ $83 3d
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 43¢ $934 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1384 history records