Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x5353…51b9 crypto 134 markets active 3d ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$868 (-5%) realized −$868 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%63W / 71L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$140per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,698
14 days−$567
30 days−$1,781
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2,707
sports 33% +$1,417
crypto 28% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -14.7% -22.8% 52% 46% -41.7%
≤30d 123 -4.9% -14.0% 46% 42% -21.6%
≤90d 134 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 43% -16.1%
all 134 -4.7% -13.8% 47% 43% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -16.1%
10% -22.1% 38% -24.1%
15% -29.6% 31% -31.4%
20% -36.5% 27% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$124 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$868
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses63 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage39d
Avg bet$140
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 −$200 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $200 +$111 +55%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $55 −$50 -91%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $81 +$77 +95%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $72 +$11 +16%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $102 +$119 +117%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $114 +$21 +19%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $73 +$42 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $73 −$1 -1%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $57 +$17 +29%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $54 +$28 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $24 +$3 +12%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $53 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $109 −$23 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $27 +$2 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $24 +$3 +14%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $291 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$6 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $103 −$67 -65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $302 $0 +0%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 11 $86 −$86 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $496 −$496 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 11 $166 −$166 -100%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) Jun 11 $333 −$333 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 11 $610 −$610 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $213 +$219 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$59 +186%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $256 +$155 +60%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $219 +$126 +58%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $444 −$339 -76%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $80 +$91 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $310 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $200 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 37¢ $42 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 99¢ $158 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 73¢ $83 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $72 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $81 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $221 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $37 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $136 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $114 4d
Switzerland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $114 4d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $73 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $72 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $73 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $73 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $57 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records