Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5358…2989 crypto 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$55 (+0%) realized +$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%150W / 9L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 27 -3.3% -12.5% 96% 0% -9.5%
all 159 -0.4% -9.9% 94% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.62 per $1 lost it wins $2.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses150 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)159 / 160
History coverage276d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? No 99¢ 99¢ $222 $222 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 24 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $219 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $218 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? Jun 15 $217 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 10 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $214 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $213 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 01 $213 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 28 $211 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $210 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? May 10 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? May 08 $210 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? May 04 $209 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $208 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? Apr 23 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 21 $207 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? Apr 18 $206 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2AM ET Apr 15 $20 −$19 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 13 $226 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $224 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 5? Apr 05 $223 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $223 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 01 $222 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 29? Mar 30 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $221 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 26? Mar 26 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $220 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 19? Mar 19 $218 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $222 −$4 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 9-15? Mar 18 $222 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $222 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $221 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $221 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $221 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $220 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $219 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $218 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 02 $216 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $217 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $216 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $164 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 18? Feb 18 $213 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 17 $213 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $212 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $222 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $222 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $221 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $219 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $220 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $94 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $109 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $5 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $217 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $217 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $216 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $216 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6? BUY No 99¢ $214 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $213 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $213 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $212 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $211 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? BUY No 100¢ $211 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $210 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $210 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $210 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 99¢ $209 54d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? BUY No 99¢ $208 63d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $207 65d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? BUY No 100¢ $207 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $206 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $20 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $226 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.66 · official $221.66 (match) · 332 history records