Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:09:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5359…6b35 other 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 182d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,268 (-0%) realized −$1,289 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate26%127W / 364L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,263per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$526now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 182d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$36,916
weather 3% −$767
crypto 0% +$14
sports 0% +$13
politics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-57.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 302 -96.5% -96.8% 2% 1% -95.6%
≤30d 340 -86.5% -87.8% 11% 2% -71.1%
≤90d 394 -68.7% -71.6% 15% 5% -57.9%
all 491 -52.6% -57.1% 26% 6% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.1% 6% -32.0%
10% ← realistic here -61.2% 4% -38.5%
15% -65.0% 3% -44.4%
20% -68.4% 3% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$225 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$526
Realized−$1,289
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses127 / 364
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)491 / 204
History coverage182d
Avg bet$1,263
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 491 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? No 96¢ 99¢ $167 $173 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? No 96¢ 99¢ $125 $129 +$4 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? No 95¢ 100¢ $87 $92 +$5 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $80 $85 +$5 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? No 94¢ 97¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 298 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 100-101°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 104°F or higher on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 1? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$26 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 19 $208 −$208 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 19 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 102-103°F on May 31? Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 19 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 19 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 19 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 19 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 19 $160 −$160 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 19 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 19 $176 −$176 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 19 $34 −$34 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? SELL No 94¢ $140 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 97¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $80 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 85¢ $68 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $119 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 19? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $19 3h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $31 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19? BUY No 95¢ $68 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? BUY No 94¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $33 5h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $111 5h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 2¢ $4 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $26 40h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $24 40h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $50 40h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $133 41h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $92 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $525.78 · official $525.70 (match) · 2506 history records