Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5360…1f6f crypto 419 markets active 0h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$45,792 (-44%) realized −$44,701 · open −$1,091
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate6%25W / 384L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$249per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$841now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,896
7 days−$3,460
14 days−$3,679
30 days−$8,309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$35,097
world 11% −$11,550
economics 1% −$983
other 0% −$260
tech 0% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-62.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -96.4% -96.7% 0% 0% -95.4%
≤30d 36 -96.2% -96.6% 0% 0% -97.2%
≤90d 233 -91.2% -92.1% 3% 3% -58.9%
all 409 -58.0% -62.0% 6% 5% -53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.0% 5% -53.0%
10% -65.6% 5% -57.5%
15% -68.9% 4% -61.6%
20% -72.0% 4% -65.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -25% → late -91% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,215 vs −$202 · ×6.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$841
Realized−$44,701
Unrealized−$1,091
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses25 / 384
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)409 / 419
History coverage176d
Avg bet$249
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 409 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $673 $631 −$42 (-6%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $130 $113 −$17 (-13%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $232 $44 −$188 (-81%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $98 $17 −$81 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $92 $15 −$76 (-83%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $602 $14 −$588 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $95 $3 −$92 (-97%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-79%)
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in June? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 22 $61 −$12 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 22 $1,596 −$1,502 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $197 −$159 -80%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $196 −$190 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 8-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 June 8-14? Jun 15 $107 −$107 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $131 −$131 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 8-14? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 12 $300 −$219 -73%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $1,880 −$1,880 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $187 −$187 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 02 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in May? Jun 02 $2,424 −$2,424 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 18 $87 −$7 -8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $354 −$354 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 11-17? May 18 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 11-17? May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 15? May 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 11-17? May 18 $463 −$463 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 11? May 12 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 on May 11? May 12 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 4-10? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 4-10? May 11 $619 −$615 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $49 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $49 1h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $89 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $48 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $94 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 1¢ $38 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $716 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $98 17h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $196 18h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $166 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $14 47h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $61 47h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $28 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $107 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $51 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 June 15-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $105 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $841.34 · official $841.34 (match) · 2109 history records