Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:34:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5361…838c other 186 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$52 (-23%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate16%30W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$17
sports 37% −$23
crypto 5% −$5
politics 1% −$3
world 1% −$2
tech 1% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +9.1% -1.3% 20% 20% -16.0%
≤30d 56 -3.8% -13.0% 16% 16% -25.7%
≤90d 184 -12.9% -21.2% 16% 16% -30.7%
all 184 -12.9% -21.2% 16% 16% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 16% -30.7%
10% -28.7% 15% -37.4%
15% -35.6% 15% -43.4%
20% -41.9% 15% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses30 / 154
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)184 / 186
History coverage41d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 152 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +536%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +413%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Australia vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 07 $1 +$5 +510%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Albania vs. Luxembourg end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Liberia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +315%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Andorra vs. Liechtenstein end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Guinea win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Dominican Republic win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $1 +$4 +388%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 +$13 +1288%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $1 +$5 +509%
Will Colombia vs. Costa Rica end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will North Macedonia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa May 24 $1 −$1 -87%
Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw? May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 25h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 42h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $1 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will Venezuela vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes $1 10d
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.04 · official $1.04 (match) · 233 history records