Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5362…d3fb other 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$722 (-7%) realized −$525 · open −$197
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%166W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$503now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$300
14 days+$351
30 days+$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$104
sports 27% −$584
world 3% +$53
crypto 1% +$41
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 47% +19.4%
≤30d 22 -24.2% -31.4% 41% 41% +17.2%
≤90d 118 -29.1% -35.8% 37% 37% -20.1%
all 385 -2.7% -12.0% 43% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 43% -13.1%
10% -20.4% 41% -21.4%
15% -28.1% 35% -29.0%
20% -35.1% 29% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$22 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$503
Realized−$525
Unrealized−$197
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses166 / 219
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions6
Markets (closed)385 / 392
History coverage301d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $200 $186 −$14 (-7%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $100 $19 −$81 (-81%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 44¢ 7¢ $100 $16 −$84 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 209 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $76 +$90 +119%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 +$76 +149%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 +$51 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $76 +$116 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 +$33 +32%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? Jun 09 $186 +$116 +62%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 04 $40 +$40 +101%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 27 $25 −$25 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $30 −$29 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 27 $30 −$29 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 27 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $25 +$22 +90%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $35 +$15 +44%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $40 +$27 +67%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 23 $46 −$45 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $25 +$15 +60%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score Apr 17 $25 +$16 +65%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 Apr 17 $25 +$19 +76%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $25 +$36 +146%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Apr 16 $28 −$28 -98%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $25 −$25 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Apr 16 $50 +$30 +60%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: Draw at halftime? Apr 15 $25 −$24 -98%
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $27 +$22 +79%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$32 +65%
Lamine Yamal: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $50 +$76 +152%
Alexander Sorloth: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $76 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 53¢ $51 20h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $51 28h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 4d
Sadio Mané: 3+ shots BUY Yes 43¢ $76 5d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $76 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $76 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $101 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 7d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $101 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $36 10d
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 12d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 12d
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Ronaldo 44¢ $102 12d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 12d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 46¢ $106 24d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? SELL Yes 45¢ $76 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $503.45 · official $503.58 (match) · 606 history records