Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5363…04aa crypto 524 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-1%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%263W / 261L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,612
7 days+$1,612
14 days+$1,612
30 days+$1,261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -2.1% -11.4% 69% 37% +25.9%
≤30d 387 -2.8% -12.0% 52% 39% +3.3%
≤90d 398 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 38% +1.6%
all 524 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 39% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 39% -7.3%
10% -21.8% 33% -16.1%
15% -29.4% 27% -24.2%
20% -36.3% 22% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses263 / 261
Open positions0
Markets (closed)524 / 524
History coverage149d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 524 Trades
no open positions (161 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $39 +$13 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $535 +$912 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $248 +$50 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $117 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $39 +$15 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$7 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $18 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $188 +$118 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $298 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2282 history records