Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5366…73aa other 191 markets active 1h ago coverage 647d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,426 (-9%) realized −$1,428 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%119W / 70L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$793
14 days−$793
30 days−$793
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$352
other 37% −$851
politics 1% −$176
economics 1% −$25
world 1% −$33
crypto 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.7% -31.0% 45% 36% -55.8%
≤30d 11 -23.7% -31.0% 45% 36% -55.8%
≤90d 11 -23.7% -31.0% 45% 36% -55.8%
all 189 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 58% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 58% -17.9%
10% -18.0% 53% -25.8%
15% -25.9% 42% -33.0%
20% -33.2% 29% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$52 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

647d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$1,428
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses119 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)189 / 191
History coverage647d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 189 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 53¢ 56¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+6%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 52¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$13 +140%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $650 −$648 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33 +$21 +62%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $565 +$35 +6%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $122 −$122 -99%
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner Feb 19 $1,056 −$1,056 -100%
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov Feb 19 $2,022 +$39 +2%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Elina Svitolina Feb 19 $682 +$17 +2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $830 +$168 +20%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $805 +$23 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Feb 15 $60 +$30 +49%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $22 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $18 +$12 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $634 +$86 +14%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $13 +$7 +54%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Ugo Humbert Feb 14 $27 +$13 +47%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $32 +$18 +56%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $36 +$14 +38%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $32 +$17 +52%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils Feb 10 $22 +$7 +30%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $29 +$21 +72%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Anytime Touchdown Feb 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 08 $561 +$63 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner Feb 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $23 +$17 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-07? Feb 07 $30 +$19 +64%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Feb 06 $454 +$81 +18%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Feb 03 $22 +$17 +78%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $445 +$43 +10%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Feb 03 $332 +$58 +18%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $229 +$81 +35%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Rybakina Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jan 30 $127 +$43 +34%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $43 −$43 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina Jan 29 $55 +$15 +27%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jan 29 $660 −$329 -50%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $11 +$9 +82%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $26 +$12 +45%
Australian Open Men's: Luciano Darderi vs Jannik Sinner Jan 27 $531 +$19 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 25 $13 −$9 -69%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-25? Jan 25 $14 +$6 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $21 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $21 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 24h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $4 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $650 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 100¢ $54 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $599 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $90 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $99 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $28 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $348 4d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $33 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $59 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $122 6d
Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner BUY Sinner 91¢ $1,056 119d
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov SELL Alcaraz 100¢ $1,049 119d
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov BUY Alcaraz 98¢ $895 119d
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov BUY Alcaraz 98¢ $38 119d
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov BUY Alcaraz 98¢ $99 119d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Elina Svitolina SELL Svitolina 100¢ $699 119d
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov SELL Alcaraz 92¢ $327 119d
Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov SELL Alcaraz 92¢ $8 119d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Antonia Ruzic vs Elina Svitolina BUY Svitolina 98¢ $682 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.00 · official $49.00 (match) · 447 history records