Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:30:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x5368…7250
sports · 1699 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$2,770 -18%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,767 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16
Realized−$2,767
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses1551 / 487
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)2038 / 1699
History coverage49d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day66.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 2 History 2038 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,724
7 days−$2,697
14 days−$2,723
30 days−$2,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Karmine Corp Blue 91¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 97¢ 64¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-08? No 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-04-12? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Belmont Bruins vs. Illinois State Redbirds Belmont Bruins 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-14? Yes 87¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Elise Mertens 95¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Stars vs. Wild Wild 62¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 74¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Club Bolívar vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 65¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs RUSTEC (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group C RUSTEC 93¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Coritiba FBC vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? No 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-07? No 83¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? No 68¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Atlético San Luis vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? No 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Adolfo Vallejo 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 86¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Wisconsin Badgers 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will SC Braga vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? No 87¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-04-19? No 70¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will USL Dunkerque vs. Grenoble Foot 38 end in a draw? Yes 71¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will SBV Excelsior win on 2026-05-02? No 90¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-08? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SV 07 Elversberg vs. 1. FC Magdeburg end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FK Dinamo Makhachkala win on 2026-04-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Belmont Bruins vs. Illinois State Redbirds Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Hornets Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Coritiba FBC vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-04-07? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-03-01? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Atlético San Luis vs. CF Pachuca end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SC Braga vs. Sporting CP end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-04-19? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs enjoy boys (BO3) - Tennisi Stampede Champion Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico City: Luka Pavlovic vs Rodrigo Pacheco Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will NEOM SC vs. Al Taawoun Saudi Club end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs AaB Esport (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Richmond Spiders vs. Duquesne Dukes Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Madrid Open: Emilio Nava vs Valentin Vacherot Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Phoenix: Darwin Blanch vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leicester City FC vs. Millwall FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Qingdao Xihaian FC win on 2026-04-11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2026-03-14? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-03-31? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Southampton FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nashville SC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will US Avellino 1912 vs. US Catanzaro 1929 end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Grou Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC vs. Bucheon FC 1995 end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-08? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will PSV vs. FC Utrecht end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 82% −$59
other 18% +$21
world 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 91¢ $9 25m
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri SELL Francesco Forti 100¢ $10 1h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet SELL Oliver Tarvet 100¢ $10 1h
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 100¢ $10 1h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Oliver Tarvet 98¢ $10 1h
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 96¢ $10 1h
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 97¢ $10 1h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C SELL G2 NORD 100¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 97¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B SELL Gatorian 100¢ $10 2h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 96¢ $10 3h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 96¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs XCLAN (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B BUY Gatorian 93¢ $9 3h
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C BUY G2 NORD 96¢ $10 3h
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo SELL Celine Naef 100¢ $10 3h
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo BUY Celine Naef 99¢ $10 3h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak SELL Kamil Majchrzak 100¢ $20 3h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 94¢ $9 3h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 97¢ $10 3h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 95¢ $9 3h
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 94¢ $9 3h
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery BUY Robin Montgomery 96¢ $10 3h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch SELL Darwin Blanch 100¢ $10 4h
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan SELL Katie Swan 100¢ $10 4h
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Darwin Blanch BUY Darwin Blanch 96¢ $10 4h
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger SELL Ashlyn Krueger 100¢ $10 4h
Ilkley: Alicia Dudeney vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 98¢ $10 4h
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan BUY Katie Swan 91¢ $9 4h
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren SELL Toby Samuel 100¢ $10 4h
Ilkley: Toby Samuel vs August Holmgren BUY Toby Samuel 99¢ $10 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 644 -52.8% -57.3% 44% 9% -52.2%
≤30d 1154 -29.5% -36.2% 65% 13% -33.0%
≤90d 2038 -17.2% -25.1% 76% 17% -23.1%
all 2038 -17.2% -25.1% 76% 17% -23.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.1% 17% -23.1%
10% ← realistic here -32.3% 7% -30.5%
15% -38.8% 3% -37.2%
20% -44.8% 1% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.80 · official $15.40 (match) · 3500 history records