Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
53 0x5377…7b29 crypto 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$171 (+8%) realized +$166 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate66%69W / 35L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$86
7 days+$166
14 days+$145
30 days+$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$183
crypto 38% −$34
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.2% -3.0% 67% 52% +4.4%
≤30d 104 +4.1% -5.8% 66% 45% -2.8%
≤90d 104 +4.1% -5.8% 66% 45% -2.8%
all 104 +4.1% -5.8% 66% 45% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.8% 45% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.8% 29% -12.1%
15% -23.1% 21% -20.6%
20% -30.6% 16% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses69 / 35
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)104 / 114
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+172%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 56¢ 54¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 35¢ 63¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 +$5 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $131 +$25 +19%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $136 +$4 +3%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $134 +$19 +14%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $120 +$7 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $180 +$35 +20%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$4 -66%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $90 +$12 +13%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 −$1 -8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $70 +$14 +20%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +156%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$11 +154%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $6 +$8 +133%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $21 +$24 +116%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -75%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $21 −$16 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $53 −$48 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $6 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 7h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $2 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 7h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $15 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $155 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 74¢ $30 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 87¢ $100 20h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $101 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $100 22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 36¢ $2 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $141 23h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 97¢ $136 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 30h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $10 31h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 41¢ $1 42h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $153 42h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 86¢ $134 44h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $127 44h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 93¢ $120 44h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $126 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 78¢ $9 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 16¢ $2 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 71¢ $81 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $1 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 66¢ $89 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 64¢ $90 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 47¢ $3 47h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $5 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.27 · official $26.27 (match) · 267 history records