Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x537a…7447 sports 1216 markets active 0h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$417 (-1%) realized −$800 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%628W / 585L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$78
7 days+$239
14 days+$228
30 days+$216
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$632
crypto 15% −$314
other 8% +$216
politics 4% +$6
world 3% −$88
economics 3% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +4.7% -5.3% 54% 53% -3.0%
≤30d 202 +8.3% -2.0% 51% 50% -5.3%
≤90d 881 -2.6% -11.9% 50% 48% -11.7%
all 1213 -1.1% -10.5% 52% 49% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 49% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 46% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 39% -28.0%
20% -34.1% 28% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$15 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$800
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses628 / 585
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1213 / 1216
History coverage114d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1213 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 39¢ 40¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $60 $38 −$22 (-37%)
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 6¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 4¢ 0¢ $120 $0 −$120 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 3¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $123 −$120 -97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $26 +$28 +109%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$31 +300%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $102 +$125 +122%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $36 −$12 -34%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $93 −$93 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $132 +$49 +37%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $26 +$7 +26%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $46 +$21 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $15 +$14 +91%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $51 +$70 +136%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $53 +$68 +128%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $15 +$10 +65%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $35 +$18 +50%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $46 +$27 +60%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $25 +$13 +50%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $81 +$37 +45%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $169 +$148 +87%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $138 +$3 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $125 −$125 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $36 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $18 +$5 +24%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 −$41 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $35 +$17 +47%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $137 +$45 +33%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 11 $36 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $76 −$76 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$26 +51%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 11 $30 +$8 +28%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $104 +$50 +48%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $74 −$74 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $46 −$46 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 30¢ $20 28m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 44¢ $15 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 46¢ $26 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 1¢ $4 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 1¢ $5 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 3¢ $13 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 2¢ $3 4h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 3¢ $21 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 1¢ $10 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 1¢ $10 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $15 5h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $54 5h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles SELL Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $28 5h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 14¢ $10 5h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 7¢ $36 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 19¢ $10 6h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 23¢ $26 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 23¢ $41 6h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 40¢ $20 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $15 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 56¢ $42 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $41 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 29¢ $10 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 36¢ $15 7h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 6¢ $57 20h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.79 · official $99.79 (match) · 3183 history records