Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x537c…21b1 other 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate46%26W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 35% −$5
politics 9% +$1
finance 6% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
culture 2% −$2
tech 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.4% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 20 +79.8% +62.7% 30% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +79.8% +62.7% 30% 5% -8.9%
all 56 +27.9% +15.7% 46% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 5% -9.5%
10% +4.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -5.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -14.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses26 / 30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage456d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $12 −$1 -12%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $21 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +8%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $53 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $8 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 07 $54 +$3 +5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $6 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $90 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $62 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $2 $0 -6%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $26 −$4 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 26 $51 +$3 +7%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $51 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 17 $8 −$2 -21%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Dec 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jun 06 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 04 $7 $0 +2%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 01 $7 $0 +6%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? May 29 $8 $0 -1%
No Trump announcement of next Fed Chair by June 30? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 25 $9 −$6 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23? May 20 $5 $0 -6%
Will Netherlands be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 14? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 13 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the San Francisco 49ers? May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $23 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 08 $6 +$1 +13%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? May 08 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 07 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $46 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $1 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No $1 30h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No $2 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $1 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $4 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $2 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes $3 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes $12 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $22 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $51 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $47 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $48 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $21 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $52 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $53 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.12 · official $45.60 (match) · 184 history records