Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x537c…c958 crypto 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-3%) realized −$134 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%98W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$237
14 days−$136
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$54
crypto 14% −$70
other 3% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -16.7% -24.6% 52% 43% -21.1%
≤30d 172 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 48% -13.2%
≤90d 172 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 48% -13.2%
all 172 -8.7% -17.4% 57% 48% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.4% 48% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 38% -21.5%
15% -32.5% 33% -29.1%
20% -39.1% 27% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$134
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses98 / 74
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)172 / 173
History coverage12d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Seattle Storm 42¢ 72¢ $40 $68 +$28 (+70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $61 −$31 -52%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $41 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $40 +$13 +32%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $61 +$69 +114%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $50 −$10 -19%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $50 −$39 -76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 +$9 +18%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $51 +$33 +65%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $99 −$97 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $40 +$21 +52%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $40 +$5 +13%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $30 +$7 +24%
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $61 −$35 -58%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $71 +$46 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Justina Gonzalez Daniele vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $51 +$26 +52%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $40 +$6 +16%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $40 +$15 +38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $55 +$16 +28%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $61 −$11 -18%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $35 +$30 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Jangjun Kim Jun 14 $7 −$1 -12%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 42¢ $41 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 28¢ $29 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $61 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 99¢ $54 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 91¢ $50 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $67 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $6 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $11 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $10 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 89¢ $42 5h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $30 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $101 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $130 11h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 46¢ $61 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu SELL Qiu Yu Ye 58¢ $41 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Qiu Yu Ye 70¢ $50 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 18¢ $12 23h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 74¢ $50 24h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 57¢ $30 24h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 84¢ $50 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 52¢ $99 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.10 · official $69.05 (match) · 361 history records