Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:22:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x5381…1ec5 other 103 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$692 (-3%) realized −$691 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate73%73W / 27L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$55
14 days−$234
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$745
crypto 10% −$5
world 9% +$21
sports 5% −$15
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 0% -4.6%
≤30d 11 -9.2% -17.9% 55% 9% -15.0%
≤90d 15 -10.6% -19.1% 53% 13% -12.7%
all 100 -4.5% -13.6% 73% 20% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 20% -12.0%
10% -21.8% 10% -20.4%
15% -29.4% 6% -28.1%
20% -36.3% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$64 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized−$691
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses73 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)100 / 103
History coverage244d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $201 $202 +$1 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $201 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,022 +$55 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $457 −$261 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $900 −$87 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $748 +$53 +7%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $84 +$5 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $372 +$21 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $124 −$26 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $471 −$236 -50%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $896 −$106 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $923 +$79 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $656 +$100 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1,000 +$109 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $47 −$31 -65%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026? May 04 $505 −$20 -4%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 01 $1,491 +$6 +0%
Texas Longhorns vs. BYU Cougars Mar 20 $1,390 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $125 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 18 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $108 +$64 +59%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $30 +$30 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 17 $112 −$95 -85%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 15 $27 +$75 +282%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 11 $74 +$49 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $26 −$6 -24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $1,473 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Mar 01 $1,471 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $300 −$36 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 27 $1,882 −$595 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026? Jan 26 $20 −$4 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 20 $300 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $1,045 +$69 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $292 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $7 −$6 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $12 −$10 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $18 −$6 -31%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $17 +$20 +115%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Jan 02 $500 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US by December 31? Jan 02 $30 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $2 14m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $35 23m
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $202 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $202 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $142 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $215 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $522 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $263 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $552 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $114 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $19 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL No 40¢ $196 7d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $457 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $813 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $441 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $450 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $9 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $85 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $716 12d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $296 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.41 · official $436.42 (match) · 362 history records