Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:35:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5388…78ae weather 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$202 (-4%) realized −$202 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%49W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 51 -3.7% -12.9% 96% 0% -15.0%
all 51 -3.7% -12.9% 96% 0% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -15.0%
10% -21.2% 0% -23.1%
15% -28.8% 0% -30.6%
20% -35.8% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$163 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$202
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses49 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage85d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 26? Jun 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? Jun 22 $118 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $81 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? Jun 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $117 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? Jun 08 $92 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $73 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? May 28 $116 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 26? May 26 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? May 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? May 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on May 18? May 20 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 15? May 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on May 15? May 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 24°C or below on May 14? May 13 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 13? May 12 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on May 10? May 10 $113 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 20°C on May 9? May 08 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C or higher on May 5? May 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 3? May 05 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 23°C or below on May 2? May 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 29? Apr 29 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on April 29? Apr 28 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C or below on April 28? Apr 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 26? Apr 26 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C or below on April 26 Apr 25 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or below on April 24? Apr 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 23? Apr 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 22? Apr 23 $110 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11? Apr 10 $213 −$213 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on April 10? Apr 10 $212 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 10? Apr 10 $212 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on April 8? Apr 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on April 4? Apr 09 $158 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6? Apr 07 $53 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $98 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $20 32h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $98 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C or below on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $7 2d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 28°C or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $118 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $37 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $81 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $118 13d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $118 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $117 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $117 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $117 20d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $92 21d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $116 22d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $116 23d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $73 24d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $43 24d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C or below on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $116 25d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $16 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $100 27d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $116 30d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $116 32d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $116 34d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $115 35d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $115 36d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? SELL No 100¢ $115 38d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 22? BUY No 100¢ $114 38d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $115 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.63 · official $118.63 (match) · 103 history records