Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:35:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5389…1e77 sports 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$490 (+16%) realized +$584 · open −$94
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%53W / 56L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$42
14 days−$37
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$419
world 21% +$107
politics 11% −$19
other 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -54.3% -58.7% 20% 20% -56.4%
≤90d 90 +2.5% -7.3% 44% 43% -3.8%
all 109 +5.7% -4.4% 49% 47% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 47% +9.6%
10% -13.5% 47% -0.9%
15% -21.9% 41% -10.5%
20% -29.6% 37% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$14 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$584
Unrealized−$94
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses53 / 56
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)109 / 112
History coverage111d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 100¢ $0 $49 +$49 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $157 $27 −$129 (-82%)
Will KT Rolster win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 15¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$20 +128%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual Apr 29 $18 −$18 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla Apr 29 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Quali Apr 25 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challeng Apr 25 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 20 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $17 +$15 +90%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 18 $15 +$21 +141%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - P Apr 18 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League Apr 17 $9 +$18 +185%
LoL: Conviction vs Apex Mission Impossible (BO3) - North American Chal Apr 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Skillcamp Esport vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 15 $9 +$21 +229%
LoL: Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition vs Team Orange Gaming (BO1) - Prime Apr 15 $17 +$19 +112%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $92 +$36 +40%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Apr 15 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 14 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 14 $5 +$7 +148%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 08 $24 −$10 -42%
LoL: Once Upon A Team vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - Road Of Legends R Apr 07 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: French Flair vs BIG - Game 2 Winner Apr 07 $11 +$9 +83%
LoL: French Flair vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 07 $27 +$26 +96%
LoL: 7REX vs RED Academy (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Season Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $30 +$45 +150%
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 06 $5 −$1 -11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $10 +$10 +104%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Group Stage Apr 05 $15 +$16 +108%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 04 $140 +$33 +23%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 04 $15 +$15 +101%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $51 +$99 +194%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $7 +$37 +533%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 03 $12 +$23 +192%
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Apr 02 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dorado Gaming vs NRG Esports (BO3) - North American Challengers L Apr 02 $7 +$11 +152%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Re Apr 02 $9 +$6 +71%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes $10 44h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 7d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 28¢ $15 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $163 13d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 24¢ $5 54d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 32¢ $6 54d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $3 54d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Vitality (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qual BUY Team Vitality 42¢ $3 54d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Pla BUY Fnatic $10 54d
LoL: Winthrop University vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challeng BUY Blue Otter 36¢ $9 58d
LoL: Team Liquid vs LYON (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Quali BUY LYON 26¢ $6 59d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Team Phoenix 12¢ $4 60d
LoL: PCIFIC vs Team Phoenix (BO3) - TCL Regular Season BUY Team Phoenix 12¢ $5 60d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $14 64d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY GIANTX 17¢ $12 64d
LoL: Team Heretics vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY Team Heretics 17¢ $10 64d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 14¢ $7 64d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season SELL paiN Gaming 64¢ $36 64d
LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season BUY SK Gaming 17¢ $9 65d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season BUY paiN Gaming 26¢ $15 65d
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League SELL Kaufland Hangry Knights 77¢ $27 66d
LoL: Kaufland Hangry Knights vs Eintracht Spandau (BO1) - Prime League BUY Kaufland Hangry Knights 27¢ $9 66d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - P BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition 49¢ $5 66d
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - P BUY Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition 49¢ $11 66d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $17 66d
LoL: Conviction vs Apex Mission Impossible (BO3) - North American Chal BUY Apex Mission Impossible $6 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.93 · official $77.93 (match) · 274 history records