Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x538b…1876 crypto 572 markets active 13h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (273 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$179 (-2%) realized −$179 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%341W / 231L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day272.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$184
14 days−$223
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$223
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (273 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 572 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 48% -12.2%
≤90d 572 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 48% -12.2%
all 572 +0.3% -9.2% 60% 48% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover272.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 48% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 25% -20.6%
15% -25.9% 5% -28.2%
20% -33.1% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$179
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses341 / 231
Open positions0
Markets (closed)572 / 572
History coverage10d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day272.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 572 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $38 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $33 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$11 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $13 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $48 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3159 history records