Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x538e…c195 sports 556 markets active 1h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58,800 (-9%) realized −$57,892 · open −$908
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate61%341W / 214L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,156per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$772est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$541now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$868
7 days−$6,600
14 days−$6,562
30 days−$6,359
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$52,250
other 3% −$6,083
crypto 0% −$377
economics 0% +$6
politics 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -46.0% -51.1% 36% 34% -35.0%
≤30d 73 -34.6% -40.8% 45% 42% -32.8%
≤90d 165 -16.7% -24.6% 60% 55% -16.9%
all 555 -11.9% -20.3% 61% 54% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 54% -17.7%
10% -28.0% 41% -25.6%
15% -34.9% 28% -32.7%
20% -41.3% 17% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$961) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$384 vs −$882 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$541
Realized−$57,892
Unrealized−$908
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses341 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$772
Open positions1
Markets (closed)555 / 556
History coverage551d
Avg bet$1,156
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay leading at halftime? No 79¢ 30¢ $1,450 $541 −$908 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,146 +$312 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $731 +$415 +57%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $178 −$175 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $125 +$54 +43%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $73 +$51 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $441 −$437 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $210 −$209 -99%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $540 −$537 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $376 +$373 +99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $728 −$716 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $597 −$592 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $351 +$246 +70%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $1,474 −$1,474 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $290 −$290 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $351 −$351 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $1,585 −$1,585 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $1,413 −$1,413 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $241 +$110 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $163 +$78 +48%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $135 +$15 +11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $297 +$55 +18%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $400 +$138 +35%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $367 +$35 +10%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $1,027 +$194 +19%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $83 −$83 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $208 −$208 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $119 −$119 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia G Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $128 −$128 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $319 −$319 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifie Jun 14 $87 −$87 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $292 −$292 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $219 −$219 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $359 −$359 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $1,459 34m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,459 53m
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $1,146 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,146 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $731 2h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 44¢ $178 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $179 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 69¢ $125 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $125 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $73 12h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $369 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $73 18h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 79¢ $140 22h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 76¢ $70 22h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 84¢ $425 22h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 83¢ $115 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 49¢ $376 34h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $728 45h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $597 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 58¢ $351 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $241 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $163 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $150 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 90¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 90¢ $27 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 90¢ $86 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $351 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $297 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $215 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.40 · official $541.40 (match) · 2055 history records