Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5390…be10 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate98%44W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$23
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$3
sports 9% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +3.6% -6.2% 100% 11% -6.2%
≤30d 45 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 45 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 9% -9.6%
all 45 +1.2% -8.4% 98% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 9% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$42 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses44 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage15d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals No 95¢ 98¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals AND Ante Budimir: 3+ goals Jun 27 $17 +$2 +10%
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals AND Toni Fruk: 3+ goals Jun 27 $39 +$4 +11%
Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals Jun 27 $39 $0 +1%
Borja Iglesias: 2+ goals Jun 27 $39 $0 +1%
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals Jun 26 $38 $0 +1%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Gustavo Caballero: 2+ goals AND Isidro Pitta: 2+ goals Jun 26 $14 +$4 +24%
Isidro Pitta: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals Jun 26 $34 $0 +1%
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals Jun 25 $33 +$1 +2%
Bae Junho: 2+ goals Jun 25 $33 $0 +1%
Zakaria El Ouahdi: 2+ goals AND Ayoube Amaimouni: 2+ goals Jun 25 $29 +$4 +14%
Haris Tabaković: 2+ goals AND Noah Okafor: 2+ goals Jun 24 $27 +$2 +7%
Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Richard Ríos: 2+ goals Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) Jun 24 $17 $0 +1%
Toni Fruk: 2+ goals Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 24 $17 $0 +0%
Spread: England (-5.5) Jun 23 $26 +$1 +4%
Samu Costa: 2+ goals Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 23 $24 $0 +1%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $24 $0 +1%
Ibrahim Adel: 2+ goals Jun 22 $24 $0 +2%
Dailon Livramento: 2+ assists Jun 22 $23 $0 +1%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $23 +$1 +3%
Víctor Muñoz: 1+ goals Jun 21 $11 $0 +2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 $0 +3%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 17 $37 +$4 +12%
Assane Diao: 2+ goals Jun 16 $37 +$1 +2%
Dennis Eckert: 2+ assists Jun 16 $36 +$1 +2%
Nicolás de la Cruz: 2+ assists Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Mahmoud Saber: 2+ assists Jun 15 $35 +$1 +2%
Pau Cubarsí: 2+ assists Jun 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Sebastian Tounekti: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 +$2 +7%
Pervis Estupiñán: 2+ assists Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Takehiro Tomiyasu: 2+ assists Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Malick Thiaw: 2+ assists Jun 14 $29 +$1 +4%
Cam Burgess: 2+ assists Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Carlens Arcus: 2+ assists Jun 14 $28 $0 +2%
Gabriel Magalhães: 2+ assists Jun 14 $27 +$1 +3%
Boualem Khoukhi: 2+ assists Jun 13 $27 $0 +1%
Mauricio Magalhães: 2+ assists Jun 13 $26 $0 +2%
Luc De Fougerolles: 1+ assists Jun 12 $24 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY No 95¢ $63 1h
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals AND Ante Budimir: 3+ goals BUY 90¢ $17 21h
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals AND Toni Fruk: 3+ goals BUY 90¢ $19 21h
Eberechi Eze: 3+ goals AND Toni Fruk: 3+ goals BUY 90¢ $20 21h
Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $39 24h
Borja Iglesias: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $39 29h
Jean-Philippe Mateta: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $38 33h
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $15 2d
Isidro Pitta: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 2d
Gustavo Caballero: 2+ goals AND Isidro Pitta: 2+ goals BUY 80¢ $14 2d
Wout Weghorst: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Deniz Undav: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $33 2d
Bae Junho: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $33 3d
Zakaria El Ouahdi: 2+ goals AND Ayoube Amaimouni: 2+ goals BUY 87¢ $14 3d
Zakaria El Ouahdi: 2+ goals AND Ayoube Amaimouni: 2+ goals BUY 87¢ $15 3d
Haris Tabaković: 2+ goals AND Noah Okafor: 2+ goals BUY 93¢ $27 3d
Spread: Colombia (-4.5) BUY DR Congo 99¢ $17 4d
Richard Ríos: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Richard Ríos: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 4d
Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Juan Fernando Quintero: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 4d
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $2 4d
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Ismael Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Toni Fruk: 2+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Toni Fruk: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $5 4d
Spread: England (-5.5) BUY Ghana 96¢ $26 4d
Samu Costa: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 4d
Samu Costa: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.73 · official $64.73 (match) · 105 history records