Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x5396…6a3b sports 239 markets active 7h ago coverage 433d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$203 (+5%) realized +$203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate71%169W / 70L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$42
14 days+$60
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$145
other 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.6% -1.7% 67% 67% +13.3%
≤30d 19 +11.4% +0.8% 63% 63% +8.5%
≤90d 154 +0.3% -9.3% 72% 38% -3.5%
all 239 +3.3% -6.6% 71% 39% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 39% -4.7%
10% -15.5% 26% -13.8%
15% -23.7% 17% -22.1%
20% -31.1% 13% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses169 / 70
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage433d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1 $0 -23%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$25 +82%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $19 +$16 +83%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$56 +288%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$3 +15%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $35 +$20 +56%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $30 +$5 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $51 +$31 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $49 −$31 -64%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $20 −$14 -70%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $101 +$36 +35%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $15 +$1 +8%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $10 +$2 +25%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $20 +$4 +21%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 +$1 +5%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $5 $0 -5%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $20 +$6 +29%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $10 −$2 -21%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $20 +$13 +65%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 24 $20 −$6 -28%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $10 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $30 +$7 +24%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $60 −$30 -50%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $30 +$26 +85%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $20 −$3 -12%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $30 +$4 +14%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $87 −$37 -42%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $81 +$20 +25%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 20 $101 −$5 -5%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $10 −$4 -38%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $15 +$4 +29%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 16 $45 +$12 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $55 18h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 19h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 40h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 41h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 44h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $32 6d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 7d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 94¢ $9 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $37 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $19 9d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 87¢ $23 10d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $20 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 98¢ $55 19d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $35 19d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 85¢ $30 21d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $82 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 61¢ $51 22d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 30¢ $18 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $20 24d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 80¢ $29 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 571 history records