Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5397…f061 crypto 1018 markets active 0h ago coverage 168d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$111 (+1%) realized +$119 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate89%899W / 111L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$58
14 days−$21
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$98
other 2% −$23
sports 2% −$7
tech 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -6.6% -15.5% 83% 8% -11.5%
≤30d 184 -6.9% -15.7% 84% 8% -9.0%
≤90d 296 -9.4% -18.0% 83% 9% -8.5%
all 1010 -4.5% -13.6% 89% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 7% -9.0%
10% -21.8% 2% -17.7%
15% -29.4% 1% -25.6%
20% -36.3% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized+$119
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses899 / 111
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1010 / 1018
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1010 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$1 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Up 48¢ 78¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Up 48¢ 72¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+49%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $7 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Up 48¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Up 48¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+24%)
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Down 48¢ 40¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Down 48¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Down 48¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET Down 48¢ 22¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 21 $29 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $53 −$30 -57%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 4PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $18 +$12 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $12 −$7 -53%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$2 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $3 +$4 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 3AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $54 +$6 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $39 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $19 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 9AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 16m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 23m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 6AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 94¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 8PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.85 · official $154.85 (match) · 3500 history records