Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5397…736b world 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61,450 (-54%) realized −$61,458 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%10W / 22L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,645per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$45,476
14 days−$65,256
30 days−$65,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 98% −$60,384
other 1% −$438
finance 1% −$446
economics 0% −$146
crypto 0% −$63
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 22% -99.6%
≤30d 10 -40.4% -46.1% 30% 20% -99.8%
≤90d 18 -39.3% -45.1% 33% 28% -57.9%
all 32 -32.3% -38.8% 31% 28% -58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.8% 28% -58.5%
10% ← realistic here -44.6% 22% -62.5%
15% -50.0% 19% -66.1%
20% -54.9% 19% -69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$718) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -30% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$688 vs −$3,106 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized−$61,458
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses10 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)32 / 43
History coverage282d
Avg bet$2,645
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 92¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 46¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 43¢ 56¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 89¢ 92¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 25¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 68¢ 78¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 86¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? No 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$5 +30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $38,234 −$38,234 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $7,211 −$7,211 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30? Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $19,780 −$19,780 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $13,200 +$1,806 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $30,876 +$4,940 +16%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 20? Apr 20 $500 −$448 -90%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Apr 17 $907 −$398 -44%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 11 $50 +$30 +61%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 02 $116 −$70 -60%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Mar 18 $90 −$90 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $136 −$126 -93%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $718 −$664 -92%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $1,125 −$1,035 -92%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Jan 18 $14 +$36 +270%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 08 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in November? Nov 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 6? Nov 08 $10 +$10 +104%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on November 7? Nov 08 $22 +$30 +136%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 07 $4 +$6 +122%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 28 $66 −$55 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 12¢ $80 19m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $25 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $50 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 64¢ $19 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $19 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $20 8h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 8h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $10 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $20 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $30 23h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $10 23h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $21 23h
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $31 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY No 94¢ $100 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 89¢ $20 23h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? BUY No 68¢ $10 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $15 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 56¢ $20 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 23h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 43¢ $20 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $2 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $4,960 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 28¢ $2,028 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5,180 5d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.91 · official $288.57 (match) · 309 history records