Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:11:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x5398…9f24 crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%41W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$3
crypto 15% +$1
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
other 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 54 +0.2% -9.4% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses41 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage535d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? May 05 $32 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $44 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? Dec 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? Nov 04 $48 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Xi visit the US before May? May 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Meta have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 05 $6 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Cana Apr 16 $15 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $2,800.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Manchester City wins the Premier League? Mar 19 $3,299 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $14 $0 +2%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Mar 04 $37 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 18 $13 $0 +0%
Brentford wins the Premier League? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Feb 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Damian Lillard lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 07 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 28d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $16 61d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April? BUY No 99¢ $16 61d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $27 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $12 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 93d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 120d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $11 181d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $44 182d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will XRP reach $3.40 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 211d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 240d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $17 241d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in October? BUY No 100¢ $32 242d
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 271d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 272d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $9 332d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $34 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $18 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.34 · official $50.34 (match) · 115 history records