Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x5399…afb0 crypto 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64 (-5%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate67%123W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day24.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$64
14 days−$64
30 days−$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -9.2% -17.8% 69% 21% -14.6%
≤30d 183 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 23% -15.0%
≤90d 183 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 23% -15.0%
all 183 -8.6% -17.3% 67% 23% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 23% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.2% 16% -23.2%
15% -32.4% 11% -30.6%
20% -39.0% 10% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses123 / 60
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 183
History coverage21d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day24.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$18 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 635 history records