Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x539c…74a4 weather 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$33 (+0%) realized +$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%431W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$27
14 days+$45
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$73
sports 3% −$41
world 1% +$7
finance 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$5
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 119 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 371 +0.3% -9.2% 98% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 478 -2.8% -12.1% 90% 5% -9.4%
all 478 -2.8% -12.1% 90% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 5% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 4% -18.1%
15% -28.2% 3% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses431 / 47
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)478 / 481
History coverage69d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? Jun 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? Jun 28 $75 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? Jun 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 28 $76 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? Jun 28 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? Jun 28 $179 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 28 $378 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $161 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 28? Jun 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 28? Jun 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 28? Jun 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $395 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 28? Jun 28 $128 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 28? Jun 28 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 28? Jun 28 $147 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 28? Jun 28 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 28? Jun 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 28? Jun 28 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 28? Jun 28 $123 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 28? Jun 28 $67 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $132 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 28? Jun 28 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 28 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 27? Jun 27 $124 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on June 27 Jun 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 27? Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $166 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 27? Jun 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 27? Jun 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $83 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 26 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 26 $83 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $57 12m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? SELL No 100¢ $66 12m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $26 23m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $8 40m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $54 42m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $20 43m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $52 46m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $21 50m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $54 50m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $21 51m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $133 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $66 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $132 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $32 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $49 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $84 3h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun SELL No 100¢ $39 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $76 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $85 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.62 · official $10.62 (match) · 2512 history records