Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:36:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x539e…5968 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$425 (-12%) realized +$71 · open −$496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +117% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +97% what you keep after slip
Net edge+97%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,528
7 days+$1,528
14 days+$1,528
30 days+$1,528
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$951
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+96.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +476.2% +421.4% 67% 67% +116.9%
≤30d 3 +476.2% +421.4% 67% 67% +116.9%
≤90d 11 +117.3% +96.6% 45% 45% +37.6%
all 11 +117.3% +96.6% 45% 45% +37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +96.6% 45% +37.6%
10% +77.8% 45% +24.4%
15% +60.6% 45% +12.4%
20% +44.8% 45% +1.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +117% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$266 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$496
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage79d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage LOS 38¢ 0¢ $497 $1 −$496 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $128 +$1,792 +1403%
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY Jun 27 $311 +$390 +125%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 26 $665 −$655 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $250 −$245 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 10 $80 −$78 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game Apr 10 $339 +$265 +78%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winne Apr 10 $250 −$246 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $300 +$202 +67%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Apr 09 $359 −$285 -79%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 09 $183 +$396 +216%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage SELL Cloud9 100¢ $1,920 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 5¢ $84 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 16¢ $44 1h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 40¢ $150 2h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs LOS (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY LOS 37¢ $357 2h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY SELL FLY 100¢ $702 3h
LoL Cross Regional 2026: KRX vs FLY BUY FLY 44¢ $311 3h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 48¢ $665 27h
LoL: DN SOOPers vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY DN SOOPers 30¢ $250 78d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 10¢ $80 78d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game SELL Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 100¢ $604 78d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game BUY Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 55¢ $339 78d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winne BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 44¢ $250 78d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner SELL HANJIN BRION 100¢ $502 79d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 59¢ $300 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy 32¢ $109 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy 35¢ $130 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy 13¢ $25 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League SELL Gen.G Global Academy 15¢ $66 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League BUY Gen.G Global Academy 21¢ $95 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G Global Academy 99¢ $579 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 28¢ $83 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 34¢ $100 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 37¢ $30 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 32¢ $25 79d
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G Global Academy 23¢ $35 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.65 · official $0.65 (match) · 27 history records