Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x539f…3474 sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-11%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%19W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$5
other 44% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 48% -12.6%
≤30d 32 -0.5% -10.0% 59% 47% -16.2%
≤90d 33 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 45% -19.6%
all 33 -3.5% -12.7% 58% 45% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 45% -19.6%
10% -21.1% 33% -27.3%
15% -28.7% 27% -34.3%
20% -35.7% 24% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses19 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$3 +17%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$3 +18%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -89%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $14 +$2 +13%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +53%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$17 -85%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $19 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 11 $15 −$11 -74%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +113%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2 $0 +6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$8 -76%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 15m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $15 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $13 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 92¢ $12 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $0 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 1¢ $0 11h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 26¢ $0 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 27¢ $0 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $13 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 90¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 85¢ $0 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 76¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 54¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 39¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 39¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 35¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 87¢ $4 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 80¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 21¢ $1 13h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 13h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records