Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
53 0x53a3…b4ef politics 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$11 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
politics 24% +$2
other 16% +$2
tech 7% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +26.8% +14.7% 50% 50% -8.5%
≤90d 4 +13.8% +2.9% 50% 25% -8.4%
all 33 +2.5% -7.3% 48% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 9% -8.9%
10% -16.2% 3% -17.6%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.6%
20% -31.7% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.85 per $1 lost it wins $9.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage302d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $56 $59 +$4 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 54¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $2 +$1 +54%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $2 $0 +12%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +11%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 21 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $8 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 11 $1 $0 -10%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 28 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 27 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 27 $38 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell in August? Aug 25 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $9 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $47 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $10 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $52 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $24 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $24 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $24 10h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 27d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 79¢ $73 27d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $73 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 51¢ $72 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $76 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 57¢ $19 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 57¢ $13 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 57¢ $25 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $18 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 55¢ $8 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 31d
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 180d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $20 272d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? SELL No 97¢ $20 272d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 272d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 273d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 273d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.43 · official $61.59 · 374 history records