Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53a5…3b06 other 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%14W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$13
politics 30% −$11
sports 10% +$5
economics 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 81 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 123 -2.0% -11.3% 11% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage131d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $221 −$1 -1%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $217 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $209 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $504 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $259 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $219 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $241 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $256 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 17 $268 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 16 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $222 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 13 $192 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $682 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will Belgium be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $251 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $181 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $238 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $399 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $252 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $433 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $213 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $373 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $463 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $205 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $470 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $215 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $203 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $457 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 10 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 36h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 40h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 47h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $36 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $36 15d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $220 20d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $221 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 25d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 25d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 25d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $202 26d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $202 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $189 28d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $189 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $217 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $217 29d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $209 29d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $209 29d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $256 29d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $256 29d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $259 30d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $259 30d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $219 30d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 30d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $241 31d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $241 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 334 history records