Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53a6…d891 crypto 1526 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6,898 (-22%) realized −$6,898 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%1048W / 478L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day80.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$380
other 3% −$29
tech 2% −$23
world 2% −$18
sports 1% +$12
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 419 -0.9% -10.4% 63% 7% -10.5%
≤30d 1526 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 27% -10.8%
≤90d 1526 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 27% -10.8%
all 1526 -4.0% -13.1% 69% 27% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 27% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 20% -19.3%
15% -29.0% 16% -27.1%
20% -36.0% 12% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,898
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses1048 / 478
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1526 / 1526
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day80.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1526 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +34%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $539 −$22 -4%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$9 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 +$2 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 20 $7 +$2 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$9 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$2 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$8 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $33 +$3 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $48 +$8 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$2 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $84 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $19 +$3 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $22 +$5 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $57 +$3 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 18 $84 +$2 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 22m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 24m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 24m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 32m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $3 32m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 55m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 55m
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 55m
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $51 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $31 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $14 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $7 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $51 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $3 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $40 14h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1 14h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $1 14h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 14h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 14h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 15h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $6 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records