Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:38:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
53 0x53ad…9deb crypto 269 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6,640 (+1%) realized +$6,621 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%251W / 16L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$2,053per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$6,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$246
14 days+$756
30 days+$1,276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$5,105
sports 3% +$1,213
world 0% +$47
finance 0% +$11
other 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 104 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 184 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 2% -8.9%
all 267 +2.4% -7.4% 94% 7% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 7% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 4% -17.2%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.2%
20% -31.8% 1% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$3,586) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$188 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$6,693
Realized+$6,621
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses251 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)267 / 269
History coverage238d
Avg bet$2,053
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $4,096 $4,111 +$15 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,579 $2,582 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $481 +$19 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $3,565 +$32 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $2,484 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $1,991 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $983 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5,579 +$12 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $983 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6,544 +$18 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,394 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,361 +$23 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,688 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $1,459 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $2,321 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $4,955 +$40 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,496 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,974 +$24 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1,075 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $166 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $5,188 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,122 +$10 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $4,293 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $499 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $8,337 +$38 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $482 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $5,289 +$8 +0%
Spread: South Africa (-2.5) Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,019 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6,322 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $6,233 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $5,226 +$11 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,978 +$74 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,861 +$12 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $994 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $3,684 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $3,588 +$75 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,042 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $5,081 +$14 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $54 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $991 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $5,065 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,895 +$53 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2,590 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $456 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $4,775 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2,813 +$27 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,497 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5,380 +$8 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,113 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $142 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $853 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $91 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $1,898 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $302 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,998 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,598 14h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $162 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $36 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $83 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 96¢ $481 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,983 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $992 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $259 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $108 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 98¢ $482 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $16 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $12 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,704 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1,629 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $868 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,760 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $238 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $85 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $45 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,398 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $979 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,693.49 · official $6,693.49 (match) · 1742 history records