Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
53 0x53ae…faea sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15,997 (-42%) realized −$15,995 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,732per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$2,749
sports 22% −$7,963
crypto 14% −$5,325
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-64.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -61.3% -64.9% 29% 29% -48.0%
≤30d 7 -61.3% -64.9% 29% 29% -48.0%
≤90d 7 -61.3% -64.9% 29% 29% -48.0%
all 7 -61.3% -64.9% 29% 29% -48.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.9% 29% -48.0%
10% ← realistic here -68.3% 14% -53.0%
15% -71.4% 14% -57.5%
20% -74.2% 0% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -61% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,682 vs −$4,280 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized−$15,995
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4,732
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $348 $346 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $405 −$405 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $4,283 −$4,264 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $7,973 +$3,981 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $3,339 −$3,292 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,416 −$5,325 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $6,495 +$1,383 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9,597 −$8,113 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $351 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $405 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 46¢ $18 20h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 46¢ $4,283 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 65¢ $234 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $7,973 40h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 52¢ $3,339 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $5,416 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 21¢ $1,484 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 41¢ $2,897 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $16 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $1,043 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $7 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $300 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $67 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $5,253 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $6,495 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.19 · official $346.19 (match) · 26 history records