Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53b0…7daa
other · 10 markets active 1h ago
3.5score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage13d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 0 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -47%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -69%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $2 +$4 +174%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$4
sports 18% +$5
crypto 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 41m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 26h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 13d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -44.9% -50.2% 25% 25% -30.2%
≤30d 10 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -8.0%
≤90d 10 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -8.0%
all 10 -10.6% -19.1% 40% 40% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 40% -8.0%
10% -26.9% 40% -16.8%
15% -33.9% 40% -24.9%
20% -40.4% 30% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.04 · official $7.04 (match) · 20 history records