Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:20:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53b7…45e5 sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,260 (-15%) realized −$3,276 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%64W / 73L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$3,152
14 days−$3,153
30 days−$2,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$3,316
sports 30% −$506
world 28% +$705
weather 3% −$148
crypto 1% −$26
finance 1% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +6.7% -3.5% 29% 24% -36.9%
≤30d 53 -7.5% -16.3% 40% 25% -28.0%
≤90d 137 -17.7% -25.6% 47% 18% -23.4%
all 137 -17.7% -25.6% 47% 18% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 18% -23.4%
10% -32.7% 11% -30.7%
15% -39.2% 7% -37.4%
20% -45.2% 7% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -30% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$73 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$3,276
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses64 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage84d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Mai Hontama 61¢ 69¢ $116 $133 +$16 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$22 +351%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 −$19 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$48 +574%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $13 −$5 -37%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $206 −$202 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,861 −$738 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2,956 −$2,899 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $2,129 +$441 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $3,200 +$262 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2? Jun 01 $198 −$171 -86%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 2? Jun 01 $235 −$36 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 2? Jun 01 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $197 +$38 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $0 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -98%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $61 −$23 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,691 +$669 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $11 +$51 +450%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 30 $37 −$26 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $14 +$23 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30? May 30 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $429 −$228 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ma May 27 $3 −$1 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $40 −$37 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 27 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 26 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on May 26? May 26 $2 −$1 -34%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 61¢ $118 31m
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama SELL Mai Hontama 81¢ $118 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Mai Hontama 78¢ $115 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 27h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $3 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? SELL No 34¢ $11 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 85¢ $30 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $8 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? SELL No 33¢ $8 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY No 48¢ $13 2d
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Heretics 37¢ $206 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.70 · official $132.72 (match) · 481 history records