Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53b9…292a crypto 947 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 27d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (97 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$452 (-4%) realized −$452 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate55%671W / 553L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day96.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$279
other 1% −$30
sports 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (97 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 438 -61.5% -65.1% 21% 18% -66.2%
≤30d 1224 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 18% -28.1%
≤90d 1224 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 18% -28.1%
all 1224 -28.1% -34.9% 55% 18% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover96.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 18% -28.1%
10% ← realistic here -41.2% 11% -35.0%
15% -46.9% 8% -41.3%
20% -52.1% 6% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$452
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses671 / 553
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1224 / 947
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day96.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1224 Trades
no open positions (487 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Sho Shimabukuro vs Alex Molcan Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Memphis Tigers vs. Tulane Green Wave Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 4PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Jenson Brooksby vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Pelicans vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Wild: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Lille: Mikhail Kukushkin vs Giulio Zeppieri Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Yandex (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Nova Esports (BO3) - China Evolution Seri Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 3PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Blues vs. Kraken Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-11? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Alanyaspor win on 2026-03-09? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Stars vs. Capitals: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. Virginia Tech Hokies Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Qatar Total Open: Anna Kalinskaya vs Elina Svitolina Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
UC Irvine Anteaters vs. Cal Poly Mustangs Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Pistons vs. Spurs Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers: O/U 142.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Senators vs. Flames Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 19, 8AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 22m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $25 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $13 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $14 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $13 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $7 23h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $7 24h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 28h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 28h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $7 28h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 29h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 29h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 29h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records