Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53b9…ca3d world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$5
other 21% +$1
crypto 5% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 15 +0.6% -9.0% 40% 0% -8.8%
all 30 -3.3% -12.5% 47% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.2%
10% -20.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -28.5% 0% -25.8%
20% -35.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage479d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $14 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $46 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $30 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $48 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $49 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $52 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $51 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2400 on June 6? Jun 07 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11? Apr 10 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 31 $3 −$1 -27%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be less than 47.5% on February 28? Mar 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 20 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $49 41m
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $10 3h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $3 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 34h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 21d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $47 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $39 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $8 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $46 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $30 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $30 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.88 · official $48.88 (match) · 86 history records