Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53bb…0f68
crypto · 919 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$75 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses550 / 368
Open positions1
Markets (closed)918 / 919
History coverage29d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day66.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 918 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Down 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+19%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 29 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 29 $3 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 29 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 29 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 29 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 29 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 29 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 29 $1 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 78% 44% -3.0%
≤30d 918 +2.6% -7.1% 60% 55% -11.3%
≤90d 918 +2.6% -7.1% 60% 55% -11.3%
all 918 +2.6% -7.1% 60% 55% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 55% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 33% -19.8%
15% -24.1% 18% -27.5%
20% -31.6% 10% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.12 · official $7.46 (match) · 3500 history records