Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53bf…e6a7 other 149 markets active 17h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-4%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%48W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$20
14 days+$5
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$29
crypto 9% −$7
tech 3% −$1
weather 2% −$3
sports 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +27.9% +15.7% 64% 64% +31.6%
≤30d 37 -15.5% -23.5% 38% 38% +1.3%
≤90d 94 -19.8% -27.5% 31% 30% -6.1%
all 148 -20.5% -28.0% 32% 31% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.0% 31% -12.4%
10% -34.9% 28% -20.8%
15% -41.2% 26% -28.4%
20% -47.0% 23% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses48 / 100
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage124d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Up 51¢ 12¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$18 +177%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$23 +151%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $19 +$27 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $6 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $10 +$31 +301%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $7 −$7 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $10 +$17 +168%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 01 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 30 $12 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 51¢ $2 17h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $25 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 97¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 51¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 52¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 100¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 72¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 53¢ $2 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 42¢ $1 8d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 50¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? SELL Up 75¢ $2 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 76¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? BUY Up 50¢ $1 11d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.45 (match) · 311 history records