Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53c1…f001 crypto 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16 (-44%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -55% what you keep after slip
Net edge-55%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%3W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$11
sports 39% −$6
other 14% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-50.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -45.7% -50.8% 38% 25% -57.8%
≤30d 8 -45.7% -50.8% 38% 25% -57.8%
≤90d 8 -45.7% -50.8% 38% 25% -57.8%
all 8 -45.7% -50.8% 38% 25% -57.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.8% 25% -57.8%
10% -55.5% 12% -61.8%
15% -59.8% 12% -65.5%
20% -63.8% 12% -68.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -53% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$4 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 14h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $4 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.94 · official $4.94 (match) · 17 history records