trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? | May 29 | $8,400 | +$1,000 | +12% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 21 | $508 | +$492 | +97% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | May 21 | $4,101 | +$50 | +1% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 20 | $880 | −$880 | -100% |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? | May 16 | $319 | +$3 | +1% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? | May 15 | $2,180 | +$5 | +0% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15? | May 15 | $78 | $0 | +0% |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 14? | May 14 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? | May 13 | $241 | +$11 | +5% |
| Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? | May 12 | $2,150 | −$2,150 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 10 | $23 | −$23 | -100% |
| Spread: Thunder (-8.5) | May 10 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on May 8? | May 09 | $591 | −$591 | -100% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 08 | $100 | −$63 | -63% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? | May 08 | $189 | +$27 | +14% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 08 | $1,942 | +$58 | +3% |
| Spread: Knicks (-7.5) | May 07 | $76 | +$24 | +32% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 07 | $2,464 | +$36 | +2% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 07 | $37 | −$36 | -98% |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 08 | $4,700 | +$300 | +6% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-07? | Feb 08 | $4,477 | +$553 | +12% |
| SC Freiburg vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 1.5 | Feb 07 | $2,055 | −$2,055 | -100% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of January? | Feb 02 | $6,059 | +$12 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of January? | Feb 02 | $10,906 | +$36 | +0% |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of January? | Feb 02 | $20,120 | +$20 | +0% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 29 | $381,513 | +$598 | +0% |
| Maduro out in 2025? | Jan 02 | $7,785 | +$315 | +4% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Dec 26 | $6,984 | −$6,983 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Dec 24 | $32 | +$68 | +212% |
| Maduro out by January 31, 2026? | Dec 22 | $1,263 | −$1,263 | -100% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 m | Dec 21 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? | Dec 20 | $1,556 | −$1,556 | -100% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 | Dec 19 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Lakers vs. Jazz | Dec 18 | $128 | −$128 | -100% |
| Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting? | Dec 16 | $8 | −$8 | -100% |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? | Dec 14 | $451,092 | +$2,051 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 12 | $9,765 | +$1,459 | +15% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 12 | $686,459 | +$4,112 | +1% |
| Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch? | Dec 08 | $2,804 | −$2,319 | -83% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 03 | $2,200 | −$1,000 | -46% |
| Grizzlies vs. Mavericks | Nov 23 | $9,996 | −$9,996 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Hornets | Nov 13 | $250 | +$508 | +203% |
| Suns vs. Mavericks | Nov 13 | $1,159 | +$911 | +79% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | +1.4% | -8.2% | 75% | 25% | -5.8% |
| ≤90d | 19 | -26.2% | -33.2% | 58% | 21% | -17.3% |
| all | 43 | -20.0% | -27.6% | 58% | 23% | -10.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -27.6% | 23% | -10.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -34.6% | 14% | -19.2% |
| 15% | -40.9% | 12% | -27.0% |
| 20% | -46.7% | 9% | -34.2% |