Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:41:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53c8…4ac9 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$442 (-10%) realized −$444 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%45W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$163
14 days−$277
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$149
crypto 31% −$197
sports 7% −$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -17.2% -25.1% 44% 44% -37.8%
≤30d 34 -19.8% -27.4% 41% 41% -27.0%
≤90d 97 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 41% -18.3%
all 113 -23.0% -30.3% 40% 35% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 35% -19.9%
10% -37.0% 31% -27.6%
15% -43.1% 27% -34.6%
20% -48.7% 19% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$27 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$444
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses45 / 68
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage149d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 82¢ $83 $82 −$1 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $44 $46 +$1 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $25 +$18 +70%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $72 +$28 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $31 +$76 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $142 −$140 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $157 −$155 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $308 +$134 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $71 +$66 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $85 +$90 +105%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $14 −$14 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET May 21 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12PM ET May 20 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11AM ET May 20 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10AM ET May 20 $45 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9AM ET May 20 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 20 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 20 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 20 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 20 $77 −$50 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 20 $52 +$26 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $26 +$12 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $71 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $45 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $1 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 13h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 25h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 41h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $142 41h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 41h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 2d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $5 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 9d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $152 9d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.25 · official $145.80 (match) · 261 history records