Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
53 0x53c9…234d sports 550 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+9%) realized +$166 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%280W / 227L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$133
14 days−$25
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$155
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 273 -11.0% -19.5% 51% 50% -22.5%
≤30d 507 +13.1% +2.3% 55% 55% -1.4%
≤90d 507 +13.1% +2.3% 55% 55% -1.4%
all 507 +13.1% +2.3% 55% 55% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.3% 55% -1.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.5% 47% -10.9%
15% -16.4% 40% -19.5%
20% -24.6% 32% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$166
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses280 / 227
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions43
Markets (closed)507 / 550
History coverage22d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Criollos de Caguas Criollos de Caguas 74¢ 100¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+35%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier KT Rolster Challengers 87¢ 88¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jaime Faria 80¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Shaiikademy vs ENTERPRISE Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 1 Group Stage ENTERPRISE Esports 87¢ 82¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-6%)
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann Jil Teichmann 71¢ 78¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami Jacopo Vasami 73¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Felix Balshaw 68¢ 70¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Raphael Perot 66¢ 68¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Grigor Dimitrov 62¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 63¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group D ODDIK 59¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Thomas Faurel 59¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 68¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Roman Safiullin 54¢ 60¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 60¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Top Esports Challenger 63¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-10%)
Halle Open (Doubles): Bellucci/Kyrgios vs Quinn/Tien Bellucci/Kyrgios 50¢ 55¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Marco Cecchinato 56¢ 54¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini Yeon-Woo Ku 50¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Gonzalez/McDonald vs Faria/Rocha Gonzalez/McDonald 58¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 1 Group Stage Barbie Boys 45¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Stefano Napolitano 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Stevenson/Willis vs Nys/Roger-Vasselin Nys/Roger-Vasselin 57¢ 47¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow Arias/Poljak 40¢ 46¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Liudmila Samsonova 36¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+344%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 137 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $6 +$4 +67%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Du Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $3 +$2 +50%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 14 $8 −$3 -39%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $6 +$4 +76%
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $8 −$3 -37%
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $7 −$2 -33%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Holon BC Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$7 +206%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 14 $6 +$4 +67%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 14 $6 +$4 +65%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Gro Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $6 +$4 +73%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen (BO5) - UKIC Masters Divisi Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $7 +$3 +44%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $6 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +38%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
Rainbow Six Siege: My Queen vs TYLOO (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group S Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Cattolica (Doubles): Jecan/Pavel vs Grevelius/Heinonen Jun 13 $2 +$3 +109%
Lyon (Doubles): Isaro/Poonacha vs Mansouri/Neuchrist Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 13 $3 −$2 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Martyna Kubka vs Gabriela Andrea Knutson Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $3 +$2 +70%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $2 +$3 +101%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 13 $2 +$3 +152%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 13 $3 +$2 +86%
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
ITF Monastir: Marcus Walters vs Dominick Mosejczuk Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $5 57m
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Sofia Kenin 39¢ $4 1h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Darwin Blanch 45¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S BUY D family 44¢ $4 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Lucrezia Stefanini BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 50¢ $5 3h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 62¢ $6 4h
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Criollos de Caguas BUY Criollos de Caguas 74¢ $7 6h
Figueira Da Foz: Matilde Jorge vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 71¢ $7 6h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 41¢ $4 7h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 63¢ $6 7h
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Kathinka von Deichmann 43¢ $4 8h
Halle Open (Doubles): Bellucci/Kyrgios vs Quinn/Tien BUY Bellucci/Kyrgios 50¢ $5 8h
Nottingham 2 (Doubles): Gonzalez/McDonald vs Faria/Rocha BUY Gonzalez/McDonald 58¢ $6 8h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 59¢ $6 10h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Nuria Brancaccio BUY Julia Grabher 51¢ $5 10h
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag BUY Toronto KOI 80¢ $8 11h
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY ODDIK 59¢ $6 11h
Poznan (Doubles): Arias/Poljak vs Gornes/Walkow BUY Arias/Poljak 40¢ $4 11h
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 81¢ $8 11h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato BUY Marco Cecchinato 56¢ $6 12h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Henri Squire 57¢ $3 12h
Royan: Lucio Ratti vs Calvin Hemery BUY Calvin Hemery 59¢ $3 12h
Rainbow Six Siege: Man eSports LFO vs Barbie Boys (BO1) - Asia Pacific BUY Barbie Boys 45¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League BUY Festina Lente 52¢ $3 13h
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand BUY Raphael Perot 66¢ $7 14h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 68¢ $7 14h
Parma: Ilia Simakin vs Jacopo Vasami BUY Jacopo Vasami 73¢ $7 14h
Dota 2: Dandelions vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 79¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY G2 Ares 22¢ $2 14h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 72¢ $4 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.00 · official $221.00 (match) · 974 history records