Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:08:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53ce…792a
other · 68 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$60
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses55 / 1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)56 / 68
History coverage261d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 12 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $4 −$4 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? May 25 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? May 11 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 09 $103 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? May 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 17 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on April 6? Apr 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 31 $100 $0 +0%
Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will "Ready or Not 2: Here I Come" Opening Weekend Box Office be betwe Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 18? Mar 23 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 13 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Mar 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Feb 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 31 $102 $0 +0%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on January 21, 2026? Jan 27 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jan 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 17 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 22? Jan 08 $101 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Chuck Schumer in November? Dec 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on November 27? Dec 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in October? Nov 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October? Nov 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025? Oct 30 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $118,000 on October 21? Oct 25 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% −$2
crypto 41% +$1
world 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 3% $0
weather 2% $0
politics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–J BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun) BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on June 11 BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $52 4d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $16 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $98 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $100 17d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 17d
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $103 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 28d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $103 40d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 52d
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $1 52d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 52d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 58d
Will Alibaba have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 58d
Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $1 58d
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App BUY No 100¢ $1 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 -11.0% -19.5% 89% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 29 -3.3% -12.5% 97% 0% -9.6%
all 56 -1.6% -10.9% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.77 · official $59.76 (match) · 123 history records