Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:05:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53d2…deab
crypto · 77 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$84 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$81 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses48 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day86.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$81
7 days−$81
14 days−$81
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 68¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 15h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -5.5% -14.5% 65% 65% -37.6%
≤30d 74 -5.5% -14.5% 65% 65% -37.6%
≤90d 74 -5.5% -14.5% 65% 65% -37.6%
all 74 -5.5% -14.5% 65% 65% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 65% -37.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 55% -43.6%
15% -30.2% 41% -49.0%
20% -37.0% 23% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.85 (match) · 157 history records