Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:54:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

53
0x53d2…a1ef
sports · 11 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$24 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$25 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 4 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +113%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 +$8 +158%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$17 +325%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% +$24
other 42% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 58¢ $5 1h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $5 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 14h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $5 17h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $5 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +79.6% +62.5% 57% 57% +60.8%
≤30d 7 +79.6% +62.5% 57% 57% +60.8%
≤90d 7 +79.6% +62.5% 57% 57% +60.8%
all 7 +79.6% +62.5% 57% 57% +60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +62.5% 57% +60.8%
10% +47.0% 57% +45.4%
15% +32.8% 57% +31.4%
20% +19.8% 57% +18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.27 · official $19.27 (match) · 16 history records