Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
53 0x53d4…6d50 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$38 (-3%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$37
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 71% 26% -11.9%
≤30d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 71% 26% -11.9%
≤90d 31 -9.4% -18.0% 71% 26% -11.9%
all 31 -9.4% -18.0% 71% 26% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 26% -11.9%
10% -25.9% 19% -20.4%
15% -33.0% 16% -28.1%
20% -39.6% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage4d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $157 +$8 +5%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $99 +$3 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $150 +$3 +2%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $80 +$2 +3%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $109 +$4 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $83 −$82 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $49 +$3 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $17 +$14 +83%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 +$2 +3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$1 +3%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $12 −$1 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 +$2 +7%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $16 +$15 +90%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 +21%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $41 +$10 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 +$1 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +65%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1 $0 -34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 55m
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $67 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $33 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $71 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $29 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $62 1h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $58 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $99 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 98¢ $150 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $82 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $113 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 97¢ $80 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $9 4h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $74 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $9 20h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes $0 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $100 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 46h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $49 47h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $17 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $33 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 96¢ $6 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $40 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records